The Football Competitiveness of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) vs. Power Five Conferences
The perennial question of whether the American Athletic Conference (AAC) can realistically compete with the weakest of the Power Five conferences in the near future reverberates through the college football community. While some may argue that the best teams in the AAC can hold their own, a more comprehensive understanding reveals the stark differences in player quality and program development between the two groups.Player Quality and Recruitment
The AAC faces significant challenges in attracting top-tier football players compared to the Power Five conferences. Currently, the AAC sees only a handful of 4-star recruits, while there are essentially no 5-star recruits. The NCAA database provides no quantifiable data to support these claims, but the lack of high-profile players is a major factor that limits the conference's football potential. When compared to perennial Power Five contenders like Ohio State, Alabama, and Oklahoma, the AAC programs simply cannot match the undefeated records and championship aspirations built on a foundation of consistently recruiting the nation's top talent.In terms of NFL prospects, the gap is even more pronounced. Star players often leave Power Five programs to enter the NFL early, where they have the potential to stake a claim as franchise players. Conversely, top AAC programs do not place nearly as many players in the NFL compared to schools like Ohio State, Alabama, and Oklahoma. Middle-tier and lower-tier AAC programs struggle to contribute even a few players, while mid-pack schools from other conferences can consistently produce NFL-caliber talents.
Conference Self-Fulfilling Prophesy
This loophole in talent creation and retention forms a self-fulfilling prophecy. High school players are less likely to opt for the AAC due to its perceived dearth of top players and limited future prospects. This cycle of underperformance and lack of star power perpetuates the ongoing debate about the AAC's competitiveness.While the top three teams in the AAC (Navy, Memphis, and Cincinnati) are indeed ranked in the top 25 and can compete favorably against weaker teams in the Power Five conferences, their overall recruiting power remains a critical bottleneck. Quality players in high school are less likely to choose an AAC school, leading to a diminished ability to compete at the highest levels.
Predictions for Upcoming Seasons
With specific attention to the 2023 season, several AAC teams are poised to make significant impacts. Memphis, ranked in the top 25, is viewed as the frontrunner for a New Year's 6 Bowl appearance. The Memphis team, led by quarterback Brady White and standout receiver Anthony Ginswell, presents a formidable challenge to several Power Five teams.Strategically, the AAC's smaller FBS status means that landing five-star recruits is highly challenging. Consequently, the AAC teams that do excel must rely on solid recruitment and strategic coaching to compete effectively. This season, Memphis stands out as a program that can challenge teams like Arkansas, Ole Miss, Rutgers, or Maryland, demonstrating the potential for the AAC to outperform certain Power Five schools.
However, it is universally acknowledged that no college team can genuinely compete with the weakest NFL team. An 18-year-old college player will be vastly outmatched by a 25-year-old professional in terms of experience and physical ability. The stark reality of this contrast further highlights the limitations of the AAC in comparison to the Power Five conferences.
Conversely, when we look at the ACC, although Clemson remains a formidable top-three team, the overall landscape of the conference becomes less hopeful beyond that. Wake Forest and Virginia offer a brief window of promising teams, but the ACC is unfortunately filled with mediocrity and inconsistency. This year, the ACC has fallen sharply in comparison to other Power Five conferences, even the weak ones, highlighting a significant gap in overall football competitiveness.